Jeff Masters has been running wind direction projections from NOAA. The takeaway:
Whatever radiation leaks from the blown reactors in Japan will very probably drift mostly to sea, and precipitate onto the ocean. Note the comparison to Chernobyl, emphasis added.
I’ve been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan’s east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 – 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance.
Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
How many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died.
The answer my friend is blowin’ in the wind.
The answer is blowin’ in the wind.